"National Health Expenditure Projections 2019-2028," Download Table "NHE Projections 2019-2028 (ZIP). Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Gross Domestic Product, Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services: April, An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030, Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2020 (Second Estimate); Corporate Profits, Third Quarter 2020 (Preliminary Estimate). U.S. Let’s imagine that it is a year from now, springtime 2021. The U.S. debt-to-gross domestic product ratio rose to 127% by the end of Q3—that's much higher than the 77% tipping point recommended by the International Monetary Fund.. Part II: The Meridian Moves East, Climate Change Indicators: Ragweed Pollen Season. Public events large and small—in sports, arts and business—were being cancelled. As this column went to press, new Covid-19 infections and economic fears were blowing up around the world. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. “By any standard measure, by nearly every recognizable metric, the state of California is not just thriving but, in many instances, leading the country, inventing the future, and inspiring the nation,” Gov. What Percentage of the American Population Lives Near the Coast? Gas prices are expected to remain below $3 a gallon through at least 2030. Lower gas prices can also drive down the price of groceries, which benefit from lower transportation costs. Image by Michela Buttignol © The Balance 2020. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. For co-founding Silicon Valley's largest public affairs organization, the 6,500-member Churchill Club, I'm a past Northern California winner of Ernst & Young's prestigious "Entrepreneur of the Year Award." The economic benefits of a Democratic stimulus package would outweigh higher corporate taxes, says the investment bank. The U.S. Forest Service estimates that 100,000 beetle-infested trees could fall daily over the next 10 years. I earned a B.A. Disagreements over how to reduce the debt may translate into a debt crisis if the debt ceiling needs to be raised. I'm the publisher of Forbes magazine, where I write a biweekly column called Innovation Rules. In the long term, they should drop, thanks to lower oil and gas prices. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Consequently, oil at one point plummeted below $30 a barrel while natural gas has already gone below $2 a thousand-cubic-feet. It's used more than any other currency for international transactions. "United States and China Reach Phase One Trade Agreement." U.S. Department of the Treasury. The acceptance of this move of demonetization by our PM was the most … U.S. National Ocean Service. Below we present a summary of some of the themes we assess will likely prevail in the global economy in 2020. The Federal Reserve has promised to keep interest rates at effectively zero for several years. You don't have to worry as much as you did in the past about inflation eating away at your retirement savings. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that 13 million people could drop coverage by 2027. As healthy people leave the insurance system, it will raise costs for insurance companies. But that forecast comes with a stark warning. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. Some critics say this spending is not needed, given the lessened presence of the U.S. military around the world. "Sovereign Debt and the Financial Crisis: Will This Time Be Different?" "Climate Change." Anyone who claims to know the answers is guessing. Food prices may rise temporarily due to the pandemic. National health spending is expected to grow at an average rate of about 5.5% from 2021 to 2023, versus a 5.2% increase for 2020.. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. U.S. Here are 34 big thinkers’ predictions for what’s to come. Projecting what the future holds is an important exercise for businesses looking to plan ahead. The debt level is not sustainable if interest rates were to rise. The Effect of Presidential Economic Policy on the Economy, Top 10 Economic Predictions for the Next 10 Years, Extreme Weather Threatens the Financial System, Health Care Costs Will Continue to Increase, U.S. and Chinese Economies Will Be More Intertwined, The U.S. Will Be Involved in Fewer Ground Wars. A slowdown in Chinese exports may also increase prices for U.S. consumers. These dead trees increase the intensity of wildfires., ​Droughts kill off crops and raise beef, nut, and fruit prices. One reason is that the Fed has promised to keep interest rates at historic low levels through 2023. This will keep mortgages very affordable until then. Extreme weather caused by climate change is likely to worsen. U.S. Department of Defense. "Monthly Supply of Houses in the United States." "Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement, Sept. 16, 2020." "Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Broad, Goods and Services." In just a few months, the COVID-19 pandemic decimated the U.S. economy. Money spent on defense increases America's debt. China will have a solid 6% year, up from 2.8% in 2020. Foreign investors may become more concerned about the U.S. debt. This page has economic forecasts for Ethiopia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Ethiopia economy. Because China is the second biggest purchaser of U.S. debt, as its demand for Treasurys declines, interest rates could rise. When and where will it all lead? But it also got an inflation not seen for two decades. The Federal Reserve and other experts predict the economy will remain subdued until 2021 or 2022. This announcement was abrupt and sudden and shocking for many people. U.S. Forest Service. 3. In October 2020, there was only a 3.3-month supply of houses in the United States. The economy won't return to its pre-pandemic level until the middle of 2022, the agency forecasts. Unfortunately, the CBO was right. Will the pandemic expand in South America and Africa this fall? People who buy them could end up paying more out of their own pockets. "National Climate Assessment." Extreme weather caused by climate change is likely to worsen. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. Once a COVID-19 vaccine is widely distributed, housing demand will return to pre-pandemic levels. They may diversify their portfolios with more non-dollar-denominated assets, such as the euro. "Employment Situation Summary: April." The UK economy is heading for its worst crash in more than 300 years because of the coronavirus pandemic, according to a new forecast from the Bank of England. The U.S. government may have to divert more funds to pay off that interest. Kimberly Amadeo has 20 years of experience in economic analysis and business strategy. The U.S. will keep 25% tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese exports and 7.5% tariffs on $120 billion of Chinese imports.. Global Stock Markets Could Predict Economic Future Post Covid-19. China became the world's largest economy in 2014. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. "Climate Change: Global Sea Level." Will warmer weather in the northern hemisphere slow the infection rate? “Made in America” means higher costs because U.S. workers get paid more for their work than those in China. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. mayor, chief call plan to cut police funds 'untenable' These costs will rise from 17.7% in 2018 to almost 20% of total U.S. economic output over the next decade. One reason is the aging U.S. population and rising enrollment in Medicare. This story appears in the April 2020 issue of Forbes Asia. Health care costs will continue to rise. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. They may also increase the interest on the debt. 4. Longer summers lengthen the allergy season. The same amount of spending on mass transit created 19,795 jobs.. The bull stock market run will continue with ups and downs and the American spirit will fully return. As long as the Fed holds rates steady, it's more likely that the housing market will remain strong. She writes about the U.S. Economy for The Balance. Climate.gov. This leads to illness and death, as well as damaged crops and dead livestock, plus power outages., Almost 40% of the U.S. population could be flooded from rising sea levels. Rising sea levels cause hurricanes and storms to push farther inland. As people drop insurance, they are less likely to get preventive care. Short-term prediction is difficult because of an entirely new actor on the economic field—the virus. U.S. Energy Information Administration. And that became the business story of 2021. The end of the China production era then means good economic prosperity for the US and its allies. Building that infrastructure in the US could lead to an economic boom in the US by 2022. What will the world look like? "Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission Hearing on 'U.S.-China Relations in 2019: A Year in Review',” Page 2. They will transmit those costs to the insured, further raising health care costs. I'm also a regular panelist on cable news' popular business show, Forbes on. Businesses react to this uncertainty by hoarding cash, hiring temporary instead of full-time workers, and delaying major investments. "Projected Changes in Persistent Extreme Summer Weather Events: The Role of Quasi-resonant Amplification." Higher interest rates would increase the interest payments on the debt. Congressional Budget Office. “Annual Energy Outlook 2020,” Page 7. Global growth will be 4%, as pent-up demand and new vaccines power a recovery from the 2020 global GDP growth of 1.2%. So will the unicorn herd. Leftwing politics will become more extreme in 2021. “Annual Energy Outlook 2020,” Page 19. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. Hospitals transfer that cost to Medicaid and insurance companies. "The U.S. Employment Effects of Military and Domestic Spending Priorities," Page 6. The world is upside down and sometimes it can be tough (really tough, if we’re honest) to stay optimistic and maintain sanity. It's fast, difficult to grasp, far-reaching in the digital landscape, and dangerous. The recovery will depend on the widespread distribution of a vaccine. The median core inflation rate is predicted to be 1.2% in 2020, 1.7% in 2021, 1.8% in 2022, … U.S. Government Accountability Office. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. Home prices will increase a modest 1.1% in 2020 as the pandemic and the recession both weaken demand. A weak dollar makes imports more expensive, contributing to inflation. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. The Once and Future Physical and Human Geography of America’s Arid–Humid Divide. The World Bank. The Fed can maintain confidence in the economy by demonstrating moderation, resulting in less extreme changes in public economic behavior. It now seems like ancient history, but only a few months ago, California’s economy was roaring. Projected Changes in Persistent Extreme Summer Weather Events: The Role of Quasi-resonant Amplification, Climate Change: Information on Potential Economic Effects Could Help Guide Federal Efforts to Reduce Fiscal Exposure, Wildfire Premiums Could Become a 'Social Issue': Munich Re Climatologist, Whither the 100th Meridian? For example, the GDP rate for the third quarter of 2020 was 33.1%, but it still was not enough to recover the prior decline in Q2., On Oct. 1, 2020, the U.S. debt exceeded $27 trillion. The COVID-19 pandemic added to the debt with the CARES Act and lower tax revenues. The Year 2040: Double the Pollen, Double the Allergy Suffering? "The Year 2040: Double the Pollen, Double the Allergy Suffering?" In a rising stock market, private investors didn’t care whether that was justified. "2020 Housing Market Forecast." It also takes away from such key areas as health care and education. U.S. Energy Information Administration. Big 3rd Quarter, Modest Growth Coming in 1st Quarter of 2021 - currently reading GDP growth in the upcoming first quarter of 2021 is likely to slow significantly. What is the fatality rate across different population groups? Low mortgage rates make this a good time to get a fixed-interest mortgage. Four possibilities stand out, starting with an end in three months or so. Global Change Research Program. Getting informed about collapse and crisis may earn you, or prevent to lose money. Though leftists Jeremy Corbyn, in the U.K. in 2019, and Bernie Sanders in the U.S. in 2020, failed to get elected, their movements will have grown, the bitter fruit of the abysmal 2020 harvest. It could make health care more expensive for everyone. "Defense Budget Overview, United States Department of Defense Fiscal Year 2020 Budget Request." In the U.S. and U.K., the 2020 recession was felt as a financial disaster for part-time and hourly workers. A crisis on this scale can reorder society in dramatic ways, for better or worse. As of September 2019, China's economic growth has been at its slowest since 1990. But the nation is now so large that it will continue to affect the U.S. economy much more than in the past. As those borrowers go under, it will damage banks' balance sheets just like subprime mortgages did during the financial crisis. What Will the Economy Do in 2020 and Beyond? Millions of asthma and allergy sufferers must pay for increased health care costs. The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low to spur growth. Getty. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. National Income and Product Accounts Tables: Table 1.1.1. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Unicorn startups will become an endangered species. The share of services in the economy … That is, human nature doesn’t change all that much. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. The new Federal Reserve head is an ardent supporter of modern monetary theory. By Nov. 20, 2020, it had fallen to 113.8, around what it was in January 2019.. Of more than 50 economists polled by Reuters, some forecast the world economy will shrink as much as 6% in 2020. The other extreme was a prediction for 0.7% growth. U.S. Energy Information Administration. The NAR expects sales to decline by 15%, even as prices rise. With that summary in place, we turn to … Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Gross Domestic Product,” Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. Nearly 3 out of 4 economists … Bureau of Labor Statistics. Italy was in lockdown, with other nations in Europe and elsewhere close behind. Narayana Kocherlakota is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. The Fed knows this is how former Fed Chair Paul Volcker ended the stagflation of the 1970s. Deutsche Bank: "The worst global recession since World War II" Deutsche Bank predicts that the US … Higher temperatures have even pushed the dry western Plains region 140 miles eastward. How transmissible is it? SciencesAdvances. U.S. Energy Information Administration. "Repealing the Individual Health Insurance Mandate: An Updated Estimate." As an author and global futurist, he has published several books, the latest of which is Late Bloomers, a groundbreaking exploration of what it means to be a late bloomer in a culture obsessed with SAT scores and early success. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. Which policies are best at slowing its spread (and do they vary by country)? The cost of living will remain about where it is today. That's unlikely as long as the U.S. economy remains in recession. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. U.S. Census Bureau. Key results of our analysis (as summarised also in the accompanying video) include: In December 2019, the U.S. and China reached an agreement on Phase One of the trade deal in which China has committed to purchasing a substantial amount of U.S. goods and services in the next several years. The Once and Future Physical and Human Geography of America’s Arid–Humid Divide. Petroleum Exports Exceed Imports in September.” Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. Predictions for the post-COVID future of work. from Stanford University. © 2020 Forbes Media LLC. For his past columns and blogs visit our website at www.forbes.com/sites/richkarlgaard. Buyers Scoop Up Dwindling Supply of Homes in October. U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. Around the world, but mostly in the U.S. and China, there are more than 500 of these cocky “digital native” startups funded by venture capital. It is loosening this peg in its bid to allow the yuan to become a global currency. "Debt to the Penny." National Health Expenditure Projections 2019-2028, Repealing the Individual Health Insurance Mandate: An Updated Estimate, U.S. Petroleum Exports Exceed Imports in September, Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission Hearing on 'U.S.-China Relations in 2019: A Year in Review', United States and China Reach Phase One Trade Agreement, Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Broad, Goods and Services, Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement, Sept. 16, 2020, Monthly Supply of Houses in the United States, DOD Releases Fiscal Year 2020 Budget Proposal, Defense Budget Overview, United States Department of Defense Fiscal Year 2020 Budget Request, The U.S. Employment Effects of Military and Domestic Spending Priorities. Congressional Budget Office. Changes in demand, many of them accelerated by the economic dislocation wrought by the pandemic, will change the future composition of GDP. "The Great Inflation of the 1970s." Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. Dr. Bill Conerly, with historical data from Bureau of Economic Analysis. As more people work from home, they desire bigger spaces.. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. American Meteorological Society. By 2100, global sea levels could rise at least 1 foot above what they were in 2000.. Brian Barnier is the Head of Analytics at ValueBridge Advisors, an editor at Fed Dashboard & Fundamentals, and a guest professor at CUNY. "Whither the 100th Meridian? Slowdowns in China’s growth could impact the U.S. economy in unprecedented ways. “Annual Energy Outlook 2020,” Page 18. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. Trees weakened by drought and pests have increased the intensity of these fires. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Any changes China makes as part of its economic reform will affect the U.S. dollar's value. Climate.gov. The U.S. dollar value hit a high of 126.5 on March 23, 2020, as the pandemic sent investors scurrying to the dollar's safety. "Wildfire Premiums Could Become a 'Social Issue': Munich Re Climatologist." "Employment Situation Summary." Has Donald Trump Brought Back American Jobs? Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. American College of Allergy, Asthma, and Immunology. Still, not all the wind will be at China’s back. Digital sales, despite comprising only about 15% of … The economy has been devastated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The production of crude oil is expected to rise to 14 million barrels per day by 2022 and remain near this level through 2045. Shale oil has driven this growth since 2010. Demand is expected to remain subdued thanks to increased use of alternative energy., In 2019, the U.S. exported more oil than it imported for the first time since 1973. U.S. oil exports are expected to increase through 2033.. Be aware that, without regulation, many personal health insurance policies may not provide as much coverage as Obamacare plans. In 2019, the uninsured no longer had to pay the Obamacare tax. GDP fell 31.4% in Q2 before rebounding 33.1% in Q3, but it still wasn't enough to recover the decline. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. Inflation returns after Donald Trump, worried about losing his reelection, fires the head of the Federal Reserve in the summer of 2020. In some areas, the pollen season is now 25 days longer than in 1995. Pollen counts are projected to more than double between 2000 and 2040., Most areas of the country are experiencing more frequent and longer heatwaves. That's the lowest level since 1963.. Cyberwarfare has become more of a threat. Predictions for 2020: “Slowbalisation” is the new globalisation. Population projections are attempts to show how the human population living today will change in the future. It also lowers export prices, spurring economic growth. Sovereign Debt and the Financial Crisis: Will This Time Be Different? The 2021 economy got its monetary jolt. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. That could turn off currency investors, who would prefer a higher rate of return for their dollar-based investments. That could make insurance too expensive for most people., Over the next few decades, temperatures are expected to increase by between 2 and 4 degrees Fahrenheit. Warmer summers mean more destructive wildfires. As Washington wrestles with the best way to address the debt, uncertainty arises over tax rates, benefits, and federal programs. Easily bored, they want to get up and go. My 2004 book, Life 2.0, was a Wall Street Journal business bestseller. National health care expenditures will increase by 5.4% a year to exceed $6 trillion by 2028. From extreme weather to rising health care costs and the federal debt, here's how all of these trends will have an impact on you. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. Global travel will have fully resumed. Arkansas. In the second quarter, it plummeted by 31.4%, but then it rebounded in the third quarter to 33.1%. In April, during the height of the pandemic, retail sales plummeted 16.4% as governors closed nonessential businesses. Furloughed workers sent the number of unemployed to 23 million that month. By October, the number of unemployed declined to a still-horrendous 11.1 million.. I'm also an entrepreneur, an active angel investor, and sit on three outside boards. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. "DOD Releases Fiscal Year 2020 Budget Proposal." Home prices will continue to rise in the long term, thanks to low interest rates and low inventory. Global Change Research Program. "An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030." Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. Defense spending is not the best job creator. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts a modified U-shaped recovery. Population: 3,014,000. Social Security pays for itself, and Medicare partially does, at least for now. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicted the third-quarter data would improve, but not enough to make up for earlier losses. By keeping interest rates high, he reassured the public the Fed was committed to preventing inflation.. The Federal Reserve has warned that climate change threatens the financial system. Extreme weather is forcing farms, utilities, and other companies to declare bankruptcy. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. "Climate Change: Information on Potential Economic Effects Could Help Guide Federal Efforts to Reduce Fiscal Exposure," Page 1. With a virtually unlimited ability to print cash, and an election promise to spend trillions in new infrastructure, Trump managed to hang on and win reelection. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This page has economic forecasts for the United Kingdom including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United Kingdom economy. Once the public expects inflation, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Core inflation will remain around 2%, according to the most recent forecast by the Federal Reserve. In October, inflation was flat at 0%, with the core inflation rate at 1.6%. , The most important role of the Fed is managing public expectations of inflation. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. I'm also a regular panelist on cable news' popular business show, Forbes on FOX (with an average viewership of 1.2 million households per show in 2012), and frequent guest analyst on CNBC's The Kudlow Report. Most economists believe the United States will tip into recession by 2021, a new survey shows, despite White House insistence the economy is sound. In the middle of all of this, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates decided to add four million barrels of oil a day to an already glutted supply. They fear that the U.S. wants the dollar to decline so that the relative value of its national debt is less. Covid-19 will accelerate a rebalancing of global supply chains away from China and toward Brazil, India, Mexico and Southeast Asia. Global travel will have fully resumed. This report sets out our latest long-term global growth projections to 2050 for 32 of the largest economies in the world, accounting for around 85% of world GDP. "Climate Change and the Federal Reserve." Extreme weather, such as heatwaves, hurricanes, and wildfires, could increase by 50% in North America by 2100. It could cost the U.S. government as much as $112 billion per year, according to a report by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO).. Economic Forecast 2020-2021. One reason is that new-home starts will drop by 11%. China will benefit from its bet on stockpiling oil reserves at cheap prices in 2020. Higher interest rates may increase the cost of loans for U.S. businesses and consumers. “U.S. 2. New Bankruptcies Dip to Record Low Amid Federal Relief, How the Current US Inflation Rate Affects You and the Economy, The Real Owner of the U.S. Debt Will Surprise You, What You Need to Know About President Trump's Impact on the National Debt, Consumer Spending Increases 40.6% in Q3 2020, What You Need to Know About the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting, How a Slowdown of China’s Economy Affects You. ... Markets are vast storehouses of data, analytics, algorithms and predictions of the near-term future. People like to travel and convene. Accessed Nov. 25, 2020. National Association of Realtors. He is a professor of economics at the University of Rochester and was president of the … Office of the United States Trade Representative. Those who predicted Covid-19 would usher in a new lifestyle … The Federal Reserve Board. I'm the publisher of Forbes magazine, where I write a biweekly column called Innovation Rules. Subscribe to Forbes Asia. Inflation. As a result, farmers used to growing corn will have to switch to hardier wheat., A shorter winter means that many pests, such as the pine bark beetle, don't die off in the winter. Low-income families without insurance might use the hospital emergency room for primary care. "What Percentage of the American Population Lives Near the Coast?" U.S. Energy Information Administration. 1. "Heat Waves." 2. The forecast offers a glimmer of hope of stronger, positive economic growth in the second half of 2021 in Indiana, setting up 2022 for positive economic output.